As previously stated, due to an uncertain future of tax rates, health insurance costs, college costs for kids, changing government regulations, and increased life expectancies, I believe it is near impossible to predict how much we'll actually need to save for retirement. Therefore, the amount you need is A WHOLE LOT! That's all you need to know - you need A LOT. And if you need a large pile of money for retirement, you need to start saving now. The sooner you make the pile of money "sorta big," the bigger it will be upon retirement.
Here is the first pitfall that I believe you need to avoid on your road to retirement:
1. Don't prepay on your mortgage.
I expect heat for this, especially since I once was making prepayments on our mortgage. And I would actually encourage a discussion amongst my readers - if you disagree, or if I'm making any specious arguments, please let me know!
If you have excess cash each month, you have a choice. You can prepay on your mortgage, you can invest the money for retirement, or you can do a mixture of the two (or you can spend it willy nilly, not a choice for Q!). Here is what you need to know: investing for retirement should be the winning choice if you can invest the cash for a rate of return greater than what you would save by paying off the mortgage early.
For example, I have a 5.5% 30-year mortgage. We currently itemize on our taxes due to the large amounts of interest we're paying on two mortgages (principal residence and lakehouse). Because we itemize, we get a tax break on this interest. I believe we're in the 28% tax bracket, so the net damage to our finances due to paying interest on our mortgage is actually about 4%. So I am in effect earning 4% on any money I place towards prepayments on our mortgage. As we lose the ability to itemize (not sure when this will happen, but it will happen), my return would them shoot up to 5.5%.
Can you beat 5.5% by investing your excess cash instead? Currently, it couldn't be any easier! An FNBO Direct Savings Account will do the trick. If you decide to lift a finger and put even a little effort in to investing the money, you should be able to earn 8% a year. If you get aggressive, you can probably average a 10% return a year (reduce this rate of return if in a taxable account, do not reduce the rate of return if your retirement funds are in a Roth). Heck, I don't think it's sustainable, but my basket of small cap stocks earned 32% in the last year, doubling the return of the S&P 500. (Lord, why isn't that sustainable?!?!?)
Clearly, investing your excess cash is the winner. When running the numbers on yourself, your percentages will obviously vary based on your mortgage interest rate and your tax bracket. But in most cases, you should be able to generate a higher return by investing than in owning your house more quickly. A 10% return wallops a 4% return! For example, on $50,000 invested in year 0, with no further monies invested, an annual 4% return would leave you with $162,000 after 30 years. A 10% annual return would leave you with $872,000. To quote Shaggy, "ZOINKS!" Another eye-opening example is down lower in this column.
Therefore, risk factors and all other things being equal, always choose the higher rate of return.
Why, then, do people choose to prepay on their mortgage?
1. I don't want to pay all of that interest. If you run a 30-year amortization table on your mortgage, you will see some scary dollars going to interest. I have always gone to Karl's Mortgage Calculator to run numbers on various apartment building scenarios. Plug some numbers in and look at the damage. A 30-year, $300,000 mortgage (assuming 20% down, this is a $350,000 house) will have you shelling out $347,515 in interest over 30 years - equal to the price of the damn house! But, if you prepay just $500/month, you will shave off $161,000 in interest. Sounds great, right? Instead of thinking in dollar terms, you have to think in percentage terms. $161,000 in interest savings sounds great right now because we're all dirt poor! But, if you invest that $500 a month and achieve a 10% rate of return, you'll have $996,482 in 30 years - almost $1 million! Here's the deal, plain and simple -- Don't live in a large house with massive mortgage payments unless you can afford it, get the lowest mortgage interest rate you can, and then don't pay attention to the raw dollars in interest you're paying because it will mess with your head.
2. I want to be free of my mortgage payment. It's the largest monthly expense for most people. Once your house is paid off, you're free. Waaa-hooo! I will not lie to you - it will be a grand day when my house is paid off. But I will not be free. I still need to invest my way towards retirement. Then I will have to navigate my way through an uncertain future, making sure I have health insurance, paying for college for two kids (should my wife and I wish to do that), and paying for two weddings. Ugh! Look at it that way, and realize that your house is not a vehicle to drive towards retirement. A very fat brokerage account is what you need.
3. How could it possibly be good to keep debt around? That's not what the experts say! It does seem counter intuitive to keep debt around, especially just so you can get the mortgage interest deduction. Of course, as demonstrated above, you're not keeping the debt around because you like it, and you're not keeping it around for the tax deduction. You're keeping it because you wish to continue to live in your house, and there is a demonstrably superior place to apply your excess cash.
Part deux to come. Continue saving!